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Anthropogenic changes and management activities, like creation of water impoundment structures, have significantly affected the hydrologic response of river basins globally. Given the anticipated climate change towards the end of the 21st century, accurate estimation of water availability is essential for sustainable resource management. Under this context, this study estimates future water availability and its two-fold uncertainty (climate model and hydrological model parameters) in the highly urbanized Adyar river basin, Tamil Nadu. The methodology involves using dynamically downscaled bias corrected hydro-meteorological variables from two General Circulation Models (GCM) – Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) and Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in a physically-based, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to project water availability for a conservation reservoir. Overall, the results show that the annual Water Yield (WYLD) and Recharge (RCHRG) are projected to increase towards the late century, with higher magnitudes in the RCP 8.5 scenario and greater variability in RCP 4.5. The analysis highlights that different GCMs produce significantly different hydrologic responses. Incorporating both climate and hydrological model parameter uncertainties are crucial for an accurate assessment. This study emphasizes the need for augmentation of surface water bodies and implementation of recharge measures to meet future demands.

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Impact of climate change and hydrologic data uncertainty on water supply in an urban river basin

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Arun Rajasekaran Sankarbalaji,
  • Elanchezhiyan Duraisekaran,
  • S. M. Kirthiga,
  • Balaji Narasimhan,
  • Elango Lakshmanan

摘要

Anthropogenic changes and management activities, like creation of water impoundment structures, have significantly affected the hydrologic response of river basins globally. Given the anticipated climate change towards the end of the 21st century, accurate estimation of water availability is essential for sustainable resource management. Under this context, this study estimates future water availability and its two-fold uncertainty (climate model and hydrological model parameters) in the highly urbanized Adyar river basin, Tamil Nadu. The methodology involves using dynamically downscaled bias corrected hydro-meteorological variables from two General Circulation Models (GCM) – Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM) and Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in a physically-based, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to project water availability for a conservation reservoir. Overall, the results show that the annual Water Yield (WYLD) and Recharge (RCHRG) are projected to increase towards the late century, with higher magnitudes in the RCP 8.5 scenario and greater variability in RCP 4.5. The analysis highlights that different GCMs produce significantly different hydrologic responses. Incorporating both climate and hydrological model parameter uncertainties are crucial for an accurate assessment. This study emphasizes the need for augmentation of surface water bodies and implementation of recharge measures to meet future demands.