The Warm Winds of Change

The future of SIDS involves a mix of cooperation, struggle, resistance and progress. SIDS are no homogeneous group, despite the threat of climate change and parallel responses, the shift away from agriculture and the ever-increasing importance of tourism and the blue economy. The SIDS have combined through AOSIS, the United Nations system and at COPs to constitute a powerful force for change. The moral high ground that SIDS occupy has produced gains, but SIDS have struggled to achieve the SDGs, despite achievements in energy development and fisheries management. That has contributed to increased interest in migration and to skill and management losses. An increased focus on gender equity would minimise such problems. A growing intensity of geopolitical contestation involves control of the oceans, whether for transport, mining, fisheries or tourism, all elements of the emerging blue economy. Despite remarkable successes at international level, SIDS cannot easily confront dominant global powers and hegemonic forces. How to sustain gains and strengthen resilience, amidst factors beyond the control of SIDs, remains difficult, but SIDS have coped, and can work towards achieving basic needs and service delivery and building on successes in specific policy domains. Migration, remittances and the diaspora population are of growing importance to local lives and livelihoods, through the deterritorialisation of SIDS populations and economies.