Population at Stabilisation

This chapter estimates the population at stabilisation in 640 districts of India as they existed at the 2011 population census. The estimation exercise is based on the modelling of the pattern of district population growth during the period 1951–2011 through the simple logistic growth model. The paper reveals that, in all but a few districts of the country, the simple logistic growth model provides very good fit to district population growth pattern during the period 1951–2011, as revealed through the population enumerated at different decennial population censuses since 1951. The very good fit of the logistic growth model suggests that the upper asymptote of the model may be taken as an estimate of the upper limit of population growth or the population at stabilisation in the district. The validity of our approach is justified by the observation that sum of the population at stabilisation in 640 districts closely approximates the most likely upper limit of population growth in the country projected by the United Nations. The time when the population of a district stabilises will, however, be different for different districts as different districts are currently at different stages of population transition. The paper also highlights the inter-district variation in the density of population and male-female imbalance in population at the time of stabilisation.