Population Growth, 1951–2011

This chapter analyses population growth trends in 640 districts of India, as they existed at the 2011 population census, during the 60 years period between 1951 and 2011. The analysis is based on the population of districts enumerated at different population censuses beginning 1951 through 2011 made available by the Registrar General and Census Commissioner of India. This chapter follows a modelling approach for analysing the population growth trend in each of the 640 districts of the country. The analysis reveals that the simple logistic growth model provides very good fit to population growth pattern during 1951–2011 in all but a few districts of the country. The annual estimates of the population of the district derived from the fitted logistic growth model have been used to analyse the trend in population growth in the district during the period 1951–2011 through the application of the joinpoint regression model. The trend analysis reveals that population growth trend in most of the districts changed at least five times during the 60 years between 1951 and 2011 and growth of population in different temporal segments has been different within the district and across the districts. The analysis also reveals that the average annual population growth rate during the period 1951–2011 has been more than 2 per cent in almost two-third of the districts of the country. There are, however, only five districts where estimated population growth rate has always been more than 2 per cent during this period.