This chapter distills the policy implications and long-term outlook of carbon market development in Northeast Asia, drawing on the comparative experience of China’s national ETS, Korea’s K-ETS and Japan’s emerging GX-ETS. It first proposes short-term cooperation mechanisms, including sectoral pilots for mutual recognition of allowances between China and Korea, the harmonization of MRV standards, and a cautious docking of China–Japan offset systems. Building on these steps, the chapter outlines medium- to long-term goals for regional market linkage, centered on a Northeast Asia Carbon Market Alliance that combines joint auctions, a common price corridor, and interoperable registries while allowing differentiated national trajectories. It then summarizes three sets of institutional design lessons—allocation models, offset portfolios and price-management tools—and argues that Northeast Asia offers a modular “institutional toolkit” rather than a single transferable template. Finally, the chapter develops a forward-looking vision for 2030, 2035 and 2050, highlighting how carbon markets, green finance, and supply-chain carbon disclosure can jointly reconfigure global climate governance from treaty-based cooperation toward networked multi-level governance.

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Policy Implications and Outlook

  • Ning Zhang

摘要

This chapter distills the policy implications and long-term outlook of carbon market development in Northeast Asia, drawing on the comparative experience of China’s national ETS, Korea’s K-ETS and Japan’s emerging GX-ETS. It first proposes short-term cooperation mechanisms, including sectoral pilots for mutual recognition of allowances between China and Korea, the harmonization of MRV standards, and a cautious docking of China–Japan offset systems. Building on these steps, the chapter outlines medium- to long-term goals for regional market linkage, centered on a Northeast Asia Carbon Market Alliance that combines joint auctions, a common price corridor, and interoperable registries while allowing differentiated national trajectories. It then summarizes three sets of institutional design lessons—allocation models, offset portfolios and price-management tools—and argues that Northeast Asia offers a modular “institutional toolkit” rather than a single transferable template. Finally, the chapter develops a forward-looking vision for 2030, 2035 and 2050, highlighting how carbon markets, green finance, and supply-chain carbon disclosure can jointly reconfigure global climate governance from treaty-based cooperation toward networked multi-level governance.