Can “Flagship Cooperation” Between Tech Middle Powers Drive Green Lead Markets? Exploring a Triangular Partnership Among Regional Anchor Countries of the EU and the Mercosur

Against the backdrop of shifting global supply chains and intensifying strategic competition between major powers, this chapter examines whether a targeted “flagship cooperation” between Brazil, France and Germany could catalyze joint green lead markets and advance the EU-Mercosur Agreement. Clean hydrogen (H2) and critical raw materials (CRM) have become central to the green industrial transition, yet their global production networks remain highly concentrated, raising vulnerabilities for economic and national security. The EU is workarounding these dynamics with an open strategic autonomy approach, focusing on domestic sourcing, manufacturing expansion and supplier diversification. This logic is also reflected in the EU-Mercosur Agreement, which highlights H2 and CRM as strategic sectors for cooperation. However, the agreement faces challenges due to the opposition of member countries and a complex approval process—and risks reinforcing Mercosur’s role as a primary commodity supplier. We explore how minilateral collaboration among the three Tech Middle Powers, and regional anchor countries of the two blocs—Brazil, France and Germany—can address these challenges. Drawing on the concept of coopetition, we argue that a structured “valiance” could foster shared value creation, advance interregional value chains and support both blocs’ green industrial objectives.