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In the era when drone technology is highly advanced, it is necessary to address the safety issues arising from UAV crashes under current conditions. This paper first employs a fuzzy Bayesian network to identify the key factors contributing to UAV crashes. Subsequently, relevant experts in the civil aviation field are invited to provide fuzzy linguistic evaluations of each risk factor, from which the prior probabilities of root nodes are obtained. The prior probabilities of non-root nodes are derived using a judgment matrix. Then, a Bayesian network model for UAV crash risk is constructed using GeNIe software, followed by single-factor analysis, as well as forward and backward reasoning to determine the critical factors influencing UAV crashes. Finally, an Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) is used to analyze the consequences of UAV crashes, providing provides ideas for UAV crash risk assessment and post-accident consequence control methods.

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Evaluation of UAV Crash Risk for Low-Altitude Biothreat Sample Transport Using Fuzzy Bayesian Networks

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Yichuan Yang,
  • Peng Hu,
  • Weiwei Yu,
  • Xiang Zou,
  • Yi Ai,
  • Guangyuan Zhang

摘要

In the era when drone technology is highly advanced, it is necessary to address the safety issues arising from UAV crashes under current conditions. This paper first employs a fuzzy Bayesian network to identify the key factors contributing to UAV crashes. Subsequently, relevant experts in the civil aviation field are invited to provide fuzzy linguistic evaluations of each risk factor, from which the prior probabilities of root nodes are obtained. The prior probabilities of non-root nodes are derived using a judgment matrix. Then, a Bayesian network model for UAV crash risk is constructed using GeNIe software, followed by single-factor analysis, as well as forward and backward reasoning to determine the critical factors influencing UAV crashes. Finally, an Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) is used to analyze the consequences of UAV crashes, providing provides ideas for UAV crash risk assessment and post-accident consequence control methods.