Methodology for Energy Modeling of Cities or Small Countries with a View to Decarbonization and Climate Resilience

This article presents a replicable methodology for urban energy modeling, focusing on energy consumption planning with a primary emphasis on decarbonization and climate resilience. The proposal was developed using El Salvador as a case study, a country that, like many developing countries, faces limitations in the availability of local energy data. The methodology is based on the use of consolidated national data and the application of a backcasting approach, which enables the construction of trajectories from a desired future, such as a carbon–neutral city by 2050, back to the present. Using the MAED tool, energy scenarios were constructed for 2050, comparing them to a baseline scenario. The results show that the most effective strategies for reducing emissions are hybrid transportation and energy efficiency in key sectors. The methodology allows for local energy planning to be guided toward more sustainable urban development.