This chapter aims to assess the impact of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) by examining their use during the Russo-Ukrainian war. Of the five EDTs analyzed, hypersonic weapons did not live up to the alarmism that preceded the conflict. As for the cyberwarfare, Russia launched the most extensive wave of cyberattacks on record against Ukraine. Yet, alarmist predictions of a ‘cyber-Pearl Harbor’ failed to materialize. Unmanned vehicles, discussed as the third category of EDTs, have had a dramatic impact on the conduct of the conflict, but not to the extent of serving as a game-changing ‘magic bullet’ capable of determining the fate of nations and conflicts. The fourth EDTs category, artificial intelligence (AI), made its debut on the battlefield during this war; however, the technological advantages gained have rarely translated into lasting battlefield superiority, as both sides have adapted in near real time. Finally, counter-space techniques were used for the first time as part of an all-out war between two state adversaries. Russia, the party that resorted to these measures, refrained from targeting satellites directly, possibly out of fear of retaliation against its own smaller and more vulnerable constellation of space assets.

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Emerging Disruptive Technologies and the Problem of Awareness Gap: Challenges and Remedies

  • Sitki Egeli

摘要

This chapter aims to assess the impact of emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) by examining their use during the Russo-Ukrainian war. Of the five EDTs analyzed, hypersonic weapons did not live up to the alarmism that preceded the conflict. As for the cyberwarfare, Russia launched the most extensive wave of cyberattacks on record against Ukraine. Yet, alarmist predictions of a ‘cyber-Pearl Harbor’ failed to materialize. Unmanned vehicles, discussed as the third category of EDTs, have had a dramatic impact on the conduct of the conflict, but not to the extent of serving as a game-changing ‘magic bullet’ capable of determining the fate of nations and conflicts. The fourth EDTs category, artificial intelligence (AI), made its debut on the battlefield during this war; however, the technological advantages gained have rarely translated into lasting battlefield superiority, as both sides have adapted in near real time. Finally, counter-space techniques were used for the first time as part of an all-out war between two state adversaries. Russia, the party that resorted to these measures, refrained from targeting satellites directly, possibly out of fear of retaliation against its own smaller and more vulnerable constellation of space assets.