Emerging Threats in Terrorism: An Assessment of a Research Agenda

This chapter explores the evolving dynamics of terrorism and identifies the emerging threats likely to shape international security. Based on a two-round Delphi survey with 30 experts specializing in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Middle East, it reveals how technological innovation, geopolitical realignments, and societal polarization are transforming terrorism’s structure, tactics, and global reach. The study finds that while the overall number of terrorist attacks has declined, their lethality and complexity have intensified, driven by the rise of adaptive ‘learning organizations.’ Synthesizing expert insights, the research categorizes emerging threats into four clusters: (1) new and emerging technology-related threats, including cyberattacks, artificial intelligence, and drone warfare; (2) innovative new threats against conventional sectors, such as maritime, nuclear, and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities; (3) accumulation of classical terrorist threats, featuring classical terrorist organizations and their access to new technologies; and (4) innovative new threats against non-conventional sectors, encompassing challenges linked to energy transition, climate change, health security, and food security. It concludes that mitigating these complex and interconnected risks requires anticipatory, multidisciplinary, and globally coordinated approaches to security policymaking.