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In this study, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the cybercrime issue and evaluate the effectiveness of cybersecurity policies based on the VCDB dataset. The analysis is divided into two tasks: For task 1, to reduce cybercrime and assist in the development of effective policies, we constructed a cybersecurity early warning model based on the TimeMixer++ framework. This model integrates time and frequency data of cybercrime indicators across multiple scales to predict crime frequency and provide early warnings. For task 2, we assessed the rationality of national cybersecurity policies by developing a policy evaluation system using the SHAP model. This system allows countries to improve their cybersecurity policies based on the importance and interactions of key indicators, as indicated by SHAP values.

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Cracking the Code: Data-Driven Insights into Global Cybercrime and Policy Effectiveness

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Haorong Liao,
  • Ruiqing Li,
  • Haorong Liao,
  • Xiaohan Li,
  • Tingting Zhang,
  • Xiangzeng Kong

摘要

In this study, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the cybercrime issue and evaluate the effectiveness of cybersecurity policies based on the VCDB dataset. The analysis is divided into two tasks: For task 1, to reduce cybercrime and assist in the development of effective policies, we constructed a cybersecurity early warning model based on the TimeMixer++ framework. This model integrates time and frequency data of cybercrime indicators across multiple scales to predict crime frequency and provide early warnings. For task 2, we assessed the rationality of national cybersecurity policies by developing a policy evaluation system using the SHAP model. This system allows countries to improve their cybersecurity policies based on the importance and interactions of key indicators, as indicated by SHAP values.