The Impact of CORSIA on China Cross-Border Aircraft Transactions: Challenges, Opportunities and Strategic Responses

The implementation of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) presents both challenges and opportunities for China’s aviation sector. As the world’s second-largest domestic aviation market and a rapidly growing source of international aviation emissions, China faces unique compliance burdens under CORSIA, particularly given its exclusion from voluntary participation in the scheme’s initial phases. This paper evaluates the multi-dimensional impacts of CORSIA on China’s aviation sector, focusing on compliance costs, technological innovation in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and low-carbon aircraft technologies, and cross-border trade implications for civil aviation transactions. Chinese airlines are projected to incur significant compliance costs, However, CORSIAalsooffersopportunitiesfordomesticSAFmarketactivation, potentiallymobilizingUS30 billion in green investment by 2035 and spurring technological leadership in hydrogen propulsion and ultra-high-bypass turbofan engines. The scheme introduces carbon-related costs and regulatory risks into international aircraft transactions, affecting carbon tariffs on imported aircraft, retrofitting demands, and data transparency requirements. To navigate these challenges, this study proposes actionable strategies for airlines, fuel producers, and policymakers. Airlines should optimize fleet renewal, SAF procurement, and carbon credit hedging. Fuel producers need to scale up SAF production while meeting sustainability criteria. Policymakers should design carbon leakage protections and green aviation corridors aligned with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to mitigate trade risks. By addressing these gaps, the study provides a holistic framework for China’s transition to net-zero aviation.