Fangchenggang City, Guangxi, China (CNFAN), is a typical region for severe thunderstorms, with the annual thunderstorm days exceeding 85. Frequent thunderstorms have led to high rate of lightning strike trip-out on transmission and distribution lines, thereby threatening the operational stability of power grid. A great engineering value has become increasingly apparent, for developing an early warning system of severe thunderstorm potential (12 ~ 24 h in advance). This study established a two-stage artificial neural network (ANN) based method for predicting severe thunderstorm potential and intensity, using six-year continuous daily ground flash frequency data and meteorological parameters across 35 geographic grids covering the CNFAN area. In the first stage, a probabilistic classification model was developed to predict the occurrence potential of severe thunderstorms. In the second stage, a regression model was constructed to further predict ground flash frequencies and geometric mean (GM) of lightning current amplitudes for severe thunderstorms. Validation results indicate that this method achieved a probability of detection (POD) of 94.48% for severe thunderstorms. Over 30% of samples exhibited relative prediction errors below 50% for ground flash frequencies and over 80% of samples exhibited relative errors under 50% for the GM of lightning current amplitudes. Through the two-stage modelling strategy, this study not only achieves high-accuracy potential prediction of severe thunderstorms, but also reveals their intensity characteristics. The results can provide multiple risk assessment bases for the early warning of lightning hazard to power grids.

错误:搜索内容不能为空,请输入英文关键词
错误:关键词超出字数限制,请精简
高级检索

A Two-Stage Artificial-Neural-Network Method for Predicting the Severe Thunderstorm Potential and Intensity

  • Weixiang Huang,
  • Xiaofei Xia,
  • Yangjun Zhou,
  • Yixiong Yang,
  • Ying Ling,
  • Zhidu Huang,
  • Shan Li

摘要

Fangchenggang City, Guangxi, China (CNFAN), is a typical region for severe thunderstorms, with the annual thunderstorm days exceeding 85. Frequent thunderstorms have led to high rate of lightning strike trip-out on transmission and distribution lines, thereby threatening the operational stability of power grid. A great engineering value has become increasingly apparent, for developing an early warning system of severe thunderstorm potential (12 ~ 24 h in advance). This study established a two-stage artificial neural network (ANN) based method for predicting severe thunderstorm potential and intensity, using six-year continuous daily ground flash frequency data and meteorological parameters across 35 geographic grids covering the CNFAN area. In the first stage, a probabilistic classification model was developed to predict the occurrence potential of severe thunderstorms. In the second stage, a regression model was constructed to further predict ground flash frequencies and geometric mean (GM) of lightning current amplitudes for severe thunderstorms. Validation results indicate that this method achieved a probability of detection (POD) of 94.48% for severe thunderstorms. Over 30% of samples exhibited relative prediction errors below 50% for ground flash frequencies and over 80% of samples exhibited relative errors under 50% for the GM of lightning current amplitudes. Through the two-stage modelling strategy, this study not only achieves high-accuracy potential prediction of severe thunderstorms, but also reveals their intensity characteristics. The results can provide multiple risk assessment bases for the early warning of lightning hazard to power grids.