Forecasting temporal processes such as virus spreading in epidemics often requires more than just observed time-series data, especially at the beginning of a wave when data is limited. Traditional methods employ mechanistic models like the SIR family, which make strong assumptions about the underlying spreading process, often represented as a small set of compact differential equations. Data-driven methods such as deep neural networks make no such assumptions and can capture the generative process in more detail, but fail in long-term forecasting due to data limitations. We propose a new hybrid method called \(\text {MP-PINN}\) (Multi-Phase Physics-Informed Neural Network) to overcome the limitations of these two major approaches. \(\text {MP-PINN}\) instils the spreading mechanism into a neural network, enabling the mechanism to update in phases over time, reflecting the dynamics of the epidemics due to policy interventions. Experiments on COVID-19 waves demonstrate that \(\text {MP-PINN}\) achieves superior performance over pure data-driven or model-driven approaches for both short-term and long-term forecasting.

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MP-PINN: A Multi-phase Physics-Informed Neural Network for Epidemic Forecasting

  • Thang Nguyen,
  • Dung Nguyen,
  • Kha Pham,
  • Truyen Tran

摘要

Forecasting temporal processes such as virus spreading in epidemics often requires more than just observed time-series data, especially at the beginning of a wave when data is limited. Traditional methods employ mechanistic models like the SIR family, which make strong assumptions about the underlying spreading process, often represented as a small set of compact differential equations. Data-driven methods such as deep neural networks make no such assumptions and can capture the generative process in more detail, but fail in long-term forecasting due to data limitations. We propose a new hybrid method called \(\text {MP-PINN}\) (Multi-Phase Physics-Informed Neural Network) to overcome the limitations of these two major approaches. \(\text {MP-PINN}\) instils the spreading mechanism into a neural network, enabling the mechanism to update in phases over time, reflecting the dynamics of the epidemics due to policy interventions. Experiments on COVID-19 waves demonstrate that \(\text {MP-PINN}\) achieves superior performance over pure data-driven or model-driven approaches for both short-term and long-term forecasting.