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This study presents a framework for assessing nation-state cyber attack capabilities by integrating MITRE ATT&CK with Large Language Models. We developed a multidimensional assessment framework comprising operational capabilities, technical capabilities, and tactical maturity, enhanced by LLM-based sophistication evaluation and synergy effect models. We conducted validation using five models (GPT-4.1-nano, GPT-4o-mini, o3, o3-mini, o4-mini) with three repeated measurements per model, selecting o3 based on statistical consistency. The framework was validated using 36 versions of ATT&CK data from 2018 to 2025, tracking 89 APT groups across 9 nations. This research provides security professionals and policymakers a practical tool for systematic cyber capability assessment.

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A Framework for Assessing Nation-State Cyber Attack Capabilities Using MITRE ATT&CK and Large Language Models

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • HyungKwan Kim,
  • HyungGyu Lee,
  • Wook Shin

摘要

This study presents a framework for assessing nation-state cyber attack capabilities by integrating MITRE ATT&CK with Large Language Models. We developed a multidimensional assessment framework comprising operational capabilities, technical capabilities, and tactical maturity, enhanced by LLM-based sophistication evaluation and synergy effect models. We conducted validation using five models (GPT-4.1-nano, GPT-4o-mini, o3, o3-mini, o4-mini) with three repeated measurements per model, selecting o3 based on statistical consistency. The framework was validated using 36 versions of ATT&CK data from 2018 to 2025, tracking 89 APT groups across 9 nations. This research provides security professionals and policymakers a practical tool for systematic cyber capability assessment.