Vietnam’s Integration Into Global Value Chains: Econometric Evidence on Forward and Backward Linkages

Vietnam’s deeper engagement in global value chains (GVCs) has played a pivotal role in its export-led growth, yet the country’s positioning within these chains remains uneven. This study investigates the asymmetric determinants of Vietnam’s GVC participation by disaggregating forward and backward linkages over the period 2007–2023. Drawing on annual macroeconomic data, the analysis applies Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with robust standard errors to capture the distinct determinants of each linkage. The findings reveal that forward linkage—reflecting domestic value-added in foreign exports—is significantly influenced by trade openness, capital formation, and population dynamics. In contrast, backward linkage—capturing foreign value-added embedded in domestic exports—is predominantly driven by final consumption and GDP growth. Institutional and environmental variables such as political stability and CO2 emissions do not exhibit statistically significant effects in either model. These results underscore the need for tailored policy approaches to GVC upgrading. While upstream integration requires strengthening trade facilitation and investment, downstream participation depends on domestic demand and production upgrading. The study offers empirical insights and practical recommendations for advancing Vietnam’s position in the global production network.