Leveraging Trade Preferences: Evaluating the Impact of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s Seafood Exports to the EU

The European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) marks a significant step in Vietnam’s economic integration, with fisheries being one of the most directly affected export sectors. While earlier studies have examined its potential benefits, most relied on pre-2020 aggregated data and thus provide limited insights into post-COVID trade dynamics. This study evaluates the static trade effects of the EVFTA on Vietnam’s fishery exports to the European Union, focusing on the mechanisms of trade creation and trade diversion. Using the WITS–SMART partial equilibrium model with post-2020 disaggregated data at the six-digit HS level, the analysis offers a more refined perspective on the distribution of gains across product categories and EU member states. The findings suggest that EVFTA tariff liberalization strengthens Vietnam’s competitiveness in high-value-added processed fishery products, while generating moderate trade diversion as Vietnam replaces some non-EVFTA suppliers. Compared with earlier projections, the updated results highlight the moderating effects of COVID-19 and the persistence of non-tariff barriers in shaping export performance. By extending previous SMART-based assessments with granular, up-to-date data, this study contributes new evidence to the literature on free trade agreements and trade policy evaluation. From a policy perspective, the results underline the importance of investing in value-added processing, ensuring compliance with EU sanitary and traceability standards, and accelerating institutional reforms such as addressing the IUU “yellow card” to fully capitalize on the EVFTA’s opportunities.