Analysis of Urban Land Price Growth Trajectories in Pyeongtaek City: Focusing on Real Estate Development Project

Urban land is essential for housing, employment, and municipal finances through property taxes. Analyzing it is crucial for efficient space allocation and infrastructure, ensuring cities remain affordable and livable. Our study utilizes individual land price time-series data from Pyeongtaek City, Gyeonggi, Korea, to categorize land price growth patterns and analyze whether structural transition occurred in the land market as of 2018. Using the Latent Class Growth Model (LCGM), the study classified land price changes from 2013 to 2023 into three classes and identified inter-class transitions as of 2018. Additionally, the study empirically examined the impact of large-scale development projects and transportation infrastructure construction on long-term land price growth trajectories. The results of the multinomial logit analysis showed that location variables such as distance from urban development zones and industrial complexes significantly influenced class membership transitions. Additionally, a unique trend was observed where some plots near railway stations exhibited degraded transitions due to delayed project progress relative to expectations. This study applied LCGM in the Korean real estate field to conduct an empirical analysis of the dynamic structure of land price changes, providing insights into the understanding of urban land price growth and implications for property investment strategies.