Global Transformation and FDI Dynamics: Evidence from Vietnam Amid Geopolitical Tensions, Digitalization, and Sustainability Trends

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has played a pivotal role in Vietnam’s economic development, yet the forces shaping its inflows are undergoing rapid transformation in the face of mounting geopolitical tensions, the global sustainability agenda, and digital disruption. This study investigates the determinants of FDI inflows into Vietnam from 2000 to 2023, adopting a multidimensional framework that distinguishes between global contextual factors (geopolitical risk, sustainability readiness, and digital infrastructure), institutional and political conditions (corruption control and political stability), and traditional economic fundamentals (trade openness). Using both ordinary least squares (OLS) and quantile regression methods, the analysis captures not only average effects but also distributional heterogeneity across different levels of FDI. The findings reveal that global contextual variables—especially sustainability and digital readiness—are consistently significant and positively associated with FDI across all quantiles, while geopolitical risk exerts a strong deterrent effect. In contrast, the impact of institutional and economic variables is more varied and less robust. These results highlight the asymmetric and evolving nature of FDI determinants in an era of uncertainty, suggesting that Vietnam’s investment strategy must prioritize resilience-building policies that respond to emerging global trends. The study offers new empirical evidence and policy insights relevant for transition economies navigating a shifting international investment landscape.