Shopping Behavior of Chinese Tourists in South Korea: Insights from Propensity Score Matching and Random Forest Analysis Amid Exogenous Events

Tourism consumption significantly contributes to national and regional economic growth. This study aims to investigate the shopping behavior of Chinese tourists in South Korea during an exogenous event (the MERS outbreak), explore their consumption patterns, motivations, and behavioral changes. Employing the propensity score matching (PSM) method and a random forest model, it examines the shopping behavior of Chinese tourists in South Korea within the context of the exogenous event, with three key innovations: focusing on micro-motivations driving consumption, filling gaps in emerging economy research by using micro-survey data, and innovatively combining PSM and random forest models. The research utilizes individual survey data from 2015–2016 provided by the Korea Cultural & Tourism Institute (KCTI). The findings reveal three key insights: (i) a marked decline in the number of Chinese tourists traveling abroad coinciding with the exogenous event; (ii) an increase in overseas tourism shopping expenditure among Chinese tourists who continue traveling abroad during the exogenous event; (iii) a notable positive correlation between shopping motivation and the overseas tourism spending of Chinese tourists.