Fatal Occupational Injuries in Major Ports: Status and Trend Analysis in India

Occupational safety and health in major ports is a critical aspect of port operations, impacting the well-being of workers and the overall efficiency of port activities. Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in predicting fatal injuries in major ports in India by providing a systematic approach to anticipate future trends and patterns. By analyzing the results, it enables identification of future trends, allowing for proactive safety measures and interventions, ultimately enhancing the overall occupational safety environment, and preventing fatal accidents in port operations. In this research article, the number of 5-year fatal occupational injuries were forecasted and compared by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Facebook Prophet, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) modeling approach. Data on fatal occupational injuries was collated from 1996 to 2021 as available in the open-source repository of Govt. of India. It appears that state-of-the-art machine learning-based LSTM model is the best among the three as evidenced by the lowest root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) on the test dataset. Based on the trained models, the number of fatal occupational injuries in the upcoming 5 years (2022–2026) has also been projected.