Optimizing Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and Kernel Production Using Dynamic Systems Case Study: PT. Perkebunan Nusantara I

Palm oil production is strongly influenced by the availability of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) from oil palm plantations, factory capacity, processing time, third-party FFB purchases, and overall operational costs. Effective operational control is crucial for optimizing production and maximizing profits for the company. This research aims to optimize the factors affecting palm oil production using a dynamic systems approach. Dynamic system modeling is conducted with Vensim® PLE 9.1.1 software based on optimization analysis. The methodology consists of three main stages: the first stage involves creating a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD); the second stage involves developing a Stock Flow Diagram; and the third stage involves simulating the model to identify optimal policies within the feedback loop, which can be recommended to PTPN-1. The data used in this research consists of quantitative data from primary sources obtained from PTPN-1 between 2016 and 2022, with the scenario’s time frame extending from 2016 to 2036. The results reveal the interactions among land fraction, harvest productivity, FFB availability, Crude Palm Oil (CPO) production, kernel production, and factory efficiency. The scenario models indicate that CPO, kernel, and FFB availability can be increased by 134 tons per year for the land fraction increase scenario, 24 tons per year for the harvest productivity increase scenario, 8 tons per year for FFB purchases, and 3 tons per year for improved factory efficiency. The model resulting from this research has a MAPE of 20–50%, specifically 49.97%, 30.76%, 37.75%, and 41.24%, indicating reasonably accurate forecasting results (satisfactory).