Study on the Extreme Payload Prediction Method of Ocean Wave Disaster Based on the Maximum Likelihood Method

With the increasing complexity of ocean engineering facilities, the higher requirement is put forward for the prediction accuracy of extreme wave loads. Traditional wave load prediction methods are mostly based on empirical formulas or statistical analysis. Although they can provide reference to some extent, they often have problems such as poor prediction effect and insufficient prediction accuracy in the face of extreme sea conditions. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of ocean wave disaster, a maximum likelihood extreme load prediction method is proposed. The new method uses the maximum likelihood method to estimate and analyze the generalized extreme value distribution data to improve the accuracy of the extreme value distribution data. The estimation of the extreme value distribution of ocean wave data can improve the prediction accuracy of the extreme load of wave disaster. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the extreme load of wave disaster using the new method can be improved by 11.25% compared with the traditional method. It can be seen that the new method can significantly improve the accuracy of extreme load prediction of wave disaster. This has a good guiding significance for improving the accuracy of extreme load prediction of ocean wave disaster.