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This study quantifies global radiative forcing (ΔF) and temperature change (ΔT) from 1850–2020 attributable to long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) using the Simple Climate Model for Optimization (SCM4OPT v3.3) with a normalized marginal attribution method. Emission inventories from CEDS, EDGAR, and BB4CMIP were combined across energy, industry, agriculture, transport, waste, and open burning sectors. Monte Carlo ensembles account for uncertainties in emissions and climate parameters. By 2020, LLGHGs contributed 3.2–3.5 Wm–2 to ΔF and 1.6–1.8 °C to ΔT, dominated by CO2 (fossil fuels) and CH4. SLCFs exerted a net cooling of –0.7 to 0.1 Wm–2 and –0.4 to 0 °C, mainly via sulfate aerosols. Sectorally, energy and industry dominate CO2 forcing, agriculture and waste drive CH4, and fossil-fuel combustion is the main aerosol source. Since 1980, LLGHG emissions have continued to grow while SO2 and other aerosol precursors have declined, revealing more of the underlying GHG-driven warming. The results highlight that simultaneous mitigation of LLGHGs and SLCFs is essential to avoid short-term warming acceleration from aerosol reductions. The framework provides a transparent, policy-relevant basis for prioritizing emission cuts consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets.

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Attributing Historical Radiative Forcing and Temperature Change by Climate Forcer and Sector: Methodology and Global Assessment (1850–2020)

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Xuanming Su,
  • Weisheng Zhou

摘要

This study quantifies global radiative forcing (ΔF) and temperature change (ΔT) from 1850–2020 attributable to long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) and short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) using the Simple Climate Model for Optimization (SCM4OPT v3.3) with a normalized marginal attribution method. Emission inventories from CEDS, EDGAR, and BB4CMIP were combined across energy, industry, agriculture, transport, waste, and open burning sectors. Monte Carlo ensembles account for uncertainties in emissions and climate parameters. By 2020, LLGHGs contributed 3.2–3.5 Wm–2 to ΔF and 1.6–1.8 °C to ΔT, dominated by CO2 (fossil fuels) and CH4. SLCFs exerted a net cooling of –0.7 to 0.1 Wm–2 and –0.4 to 0 °C, mainly via sulfate aerosols. Sectorally, energy and industry dominate CO2 forcing, agriculture and waste drive CH4, and fossil-fuel combustion is the main aerosol source. Since 1980, LLGHG emissions have continued to grow while SO2 and other aerosol precursors have declined, revealing more of the underlying GHG-driven warming. The results highlight that simultaneous mitigation of LLGHGs and SLCFs is essential to avoid short-term warming acceleration from aerosol reductions. The framework provides a transparent, policy-relevant basis for prioritizing emission cuts consistent with the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets.