Multi-stage Production and Transportation Planning Considering Changes in Advance Demand Information
摘要
In recent years, the number of companies engaged in global businesses has increased. Exporting manufactured goods to other countries requires transportation time. Additionally, when the manufacturing lead-time is long, it is common to conduct forecast-based production before receiving orders. In such cases, production planning is based on past order performance or advance demand information (ADI), which comprises preliminary order quantity data disclosed by customers. However, actual order quantities often differ significantly from the ADI. The lack of flexibility in responding to changes in indicative information has led to issues such as inventory shortages, surplus, and increased costs. Therefore, this paper proposes a method for global production and logistics planning that can swiftly adapt to changes in ADI. The effectiveness of this approach is verified using an example of an automotive part that requires multiple manufacturing processes for completion. The proposed model was simulated based on the ADI characteristics and validated through three scenarios: overestimation, underestimation, and a combination of both (i.e., misestimation). Consequently, the effectiveness of the proposed method for reducing inventory was confirmed.