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This study underscores the crucial role of land surface physics in enhancing the accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) predictions for mitigating the impacts of severe weather events. The sensitivity of explicit simulations conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with reference to the track and intensity of TC NIVAR to two distinct land surface models: Noah and Noah MP are evaluated. The WRFv4.0 with 9–3 km nested domain configuration covering the Indian peninsular and North Indian Ocean (NIO) region is integrated using Global Forecast System (GFS) at 0.25° × 0.25° and 3 h resolution initial and boundary conditions. Simulation results for central pressure and maximum winds were compared against the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) best track parameters, and the simulated reflectivity was compared with IMD Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) reflectivity data. The analysis revealed that simulation with Noah MP more realistically replicated the movement of the TC, exhibiting reduced track and landfall position errors compared to Noah. Notably, Noah MP exhibited better performance in capturing the intensity and deepening duration of NIVAR relative to Noah. Despite both land surface models displaying an overestimation of radar reflectivity and discrepancies in landfall timing, Noah MP produced enhanced representation of the cyclone’s structure, including features such as cloud bands and spiral cloud structures. The Noah MP better simulated various features due to better treatment of vegetation, canopy, hydrology, and soil moisture processes that are important in surface energy transfer. This advanced capability of Noah MP to accurately portray complex interactions between the atmosphere and land surface renders it a preferred choice for simulating TCs within the WRF model framework.

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Sensitivity of WRF Simulations of Intensity and Track Parameters of Nivar Cyclone to Land Surface Physics and Validation with DWR Observations

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Nimisha Maria Sebastian,
  • C. V. Srinivas,
  • Vidya Sundararajan,
  • B. Venkatraman

摘要

This study underscores the crucial role of land surface physics in enhancing the accuracy of tropical cyclone (TC) predictions for mitigating the impacts of severe weather events. The sensitivity of explicit simulations conducted with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with reference to the track and intensity of TC NIVAR to two distinct land surface models: Noah and Noah MP are evaluated. The WRFv4.0 with 9–3 km nested domain configuration covering the Indian peninsular and North Indian Ocean (NIO) region is integrated using Global Forecast System (GFS) at 0.25° × 0.25° and 3 h resolution initial and boundary conditions. Simulation results for central pressure and maximum winds were compared against the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) best track parameters, and the simulated reflectivity was compared with IMD Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) reflectivity data. The analysis revealed that simulation with Noah MP more realistically replicated the movement of the TC, exhibiting reduced track and landfall position errors compared to Noah. Notably, Noah MP exhibited better performance in capturing the intensity and deepening duration of NIVAR relative to Noah. Despite both land surface models displaying an overestimation of radar reflectivity and discrepancies in landfall timing, Noah MP produced enhanced representation of the cyclone’s structure, including features such as cloud bands and spiral cloud structures. The Noah MP better simulated various features due to better treatment of vegetation, canopy, hydrology, and soil moisture processes that are important in surface energy transfer. This advanced capability of Noah MP to accurately portray complex interactions between the atmosphere and land surface renders it a preferred choice for simulating TCs within the WRF model framework.