External Constraints and Hungary’s Hedging Strategy in an Era of Great Power Rivalry

On April 12, 2026, Hungary’s Tisztesség és Szabadság Party (TISZA) won a two-thirds majority, ending the 16-year-long era of Viktor Orbán-led Fidesz-KDNP rule. Since 2010, Hungarian foreign policy under Viktor Orbán has undergone significant transformations, diverging from its traditional Euro-Atlantic focus. This period has been characterized by assertive, conflict-driven diplomacy, aimed at securing Hungary’s economic and geopolitical position in a rapidly changing international system. Central to this approach was the pursuit of a hedging strategy, formulated to navigate the complexities of great power rivalries while advancing what the government defined as national interests. The main argument of this chapter is that hedging offers a critical lens for understanding Hungarian foreign policy, between 2010 and 2026, by investigating it through the logic of balancing opportunities and risks posed by systemic shifts. Hungary’s foreign policy in this period reflects core principles such as the “Eastern Opening,” emphasizing deepened economic ties with Asia; “Multi-vector foreign policy,” aimed at diversifying international relations; “Connectivity,” focusing on Hungary’s role as a strategic hub; and “Economic Neutrality,” striving to separate economic engagement from geopolitical tensions. By applying a hedging analytical framework, this chapter uses these foreign policy concepts to interpret Hungary’s maneuvering between Western and Eastern powers and to outline a structured set of future options for Hungarian foreign policy, providing a framework to understand the choices facing the next government after the 2026 political alternation.