Prediction and Pathway Planning for Urban Carbon Peak

Under the background of the “dual carbon” goals, given that carbon peak research at the national and provincial levels is relatively mature, a method for predicting the carbon peak time of cities is proposed. Based on the Markov prediction model, the energy consumption structure is predicted using historical energy consumption data of terminal industries in cities. Then, use the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) model to determine activity levels and energy intensity to estimate terminal industry energy consumption. On this basis, the emission factor method is applied to calculate carbon emissions for each industry and the total carbon emissions of the city, determine the carbon peak time and predict carbon emissions under different scenarios. Finally, take Nanjing in China as a case study to predict the city’s carbon peak time and plan its carbon reduction pathway. By analyzing and comparing carbon emission curves under different scenarios, reasonable solutions are provided for Nanjing to better respond to the “dual carbon” goals.