Regional Trade and Anchor Currency
摘要
This chapter evaluates currency-anchoring options for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest trading bloc formed in 2020 by 15 Asia–Pacific economies. Using a time-varying parameter VAR calibrated to bilateral trade data, we compare the US dollar (USD), Chinese yuan (CNY), and Japanese yen (JPY) with respect to trade-weighted volatility and marginal effects on intraregional flows across crisis episodes. Results show that the USD’s stabilizing power has waned since the 2008 global financial crisis—a decline intensified by the 2018–19 US–China tariff dispute and the COVID-19 shock—while dollar-denominated volatility spills over even to dyads that exclude the US. The CNY now delivers superior value stability and trade-creation effects, mirroring China’s expanding share of regional output. The JPY, once dominant, trails the yuan except in corridors closely linked to Japan and South Korea. Policy implications are twofold. First, selecting a regionally embedded anchor—likely the CNY—can lower transaction risk, strengthen supply-chain resilience, and advance South-South financial integration. Second, targeted measures such as enhanced yen-settlement facilities could revive JPY relevance and diversify the monetary ecosystem, thereby boosting RCEP’s collective capacity to absorb external shocks.