We examine how an International Currency Circulation (ICC) framework anchored in domestic treasury bond markets can reduce liquidity risk as economies promote their currencies abroad. Using an agent-based model that replicates heterogeneous investors, we test the effect of monetary policy stances, foreign participation, and sentiment shocks on bond prices under various ICC designs. Three results emerge. First, policy tightening calms prices quickly, whereas easing delays yet amplifies movements; a neutral stance yields the smoothest path. Second, overseas investors deepen liquidity and curb volatility—unless the market depends excessively on speculative flows, which can intensify downturns. Third, sentiment proves nonlinear: optimism supports stability, but pessimism can trigger abrupt sell-offs. Policy lessons follow. Authorities should calibrate easing cycles, pace market opening, and strengthen disclosure to temper speculative waves. Sentiment management through clear guidance further safeguards the ICC channel. By embedding these measures, treasury bond markets serve as safe conduits for currency internationalization, advancing inclusive growth, resilient infrastructure, and effective institutions.

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International Currency Circulation as a Policy Target

  • Dong Guo,
  • Peng Zhou

摘要

We examine how an International Currency Circulation (ICC) framework anchored in domestic treasury bond markets can reduce liquidity risk as economies promote their currencies abroad. Using an agent-based model that replicates heterogeneous investors, we test the effect of monetary policy stances, foreign participation, and sentiment shocks on bond prices under various ICC designs. Three results emerge. First, policy tightening calms prices quickly, whereas easing delays yet amplifies movements; a neutral stance yields the smoothest path. Second, overseas investors deepen liquidity and curb volatility—unless the market depends excessively on speculative flows, which can intensify downturns. Third, sentiment proves nonlinear: optimism supports stability, but pessimism can trigger abrupt sell-offs. Policy lessons follow. Authorities should calibrate easing cycles, pace market opening, and strengthen disclosure to temper speculative waves. Sentiment management through clear guidance further safeguards the ICC channel. By embedding these measures, treasury bond markets serve as safe conduits for currency internationalization, advancing inclusive growth, resilient infrastructure, and effective institutions.