Medium-Term Rate as a Policy Instrument
摘要
We evaluate China’s 2019 reform that installed the Loan Prime Rate (LPR)—anchored by the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF)—as the nation’s principal lending benchmark. Two questions guide the analysis: Has the LPR strengthened monetary policy transmission, and does it satisfy international criteria for a reliable benchmark? Using term-structure models and cross-market comparisons with the US secured overnight financing rate and other global yardsticks, we test how effectively LPR movements pass through to loan pricing and how closely the rate tracks underlying funding conditions. Results indicate that the LPR’s medium-term tenor transmits People’s Bank of China signals more smoothly than prior short-term references, giving policymakers finer control over credit costs. The rate meets most Bank for International Settlements standards—transparency, representativeness, and robustness—yet its stability would improve with deeper derivative markets and a wider set of quoted maturities. Aligning the LPR with MLF operations lets the PBoC manage interest rate expectations in a manner analogous to the Federal Reserve’s use of SOFR. Policy recommendations are threefold: reinforce the LPR’s benchmark status to sharpen monetary precision; foster derivatives linked to the LPR to enhance risk management; and extend the curve to longer tenors to channel finance to sectors requiring patient capital. Properly nurtured, the LPR can promote inclusive growth and resilient financial infrastructure.