Probabilistic Risk Analysis Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Metro Rail Construction
摘要
Effective risk management is essential for accurately estimating time, cost, and completion timelines in large-scale infrastructure projects. This study applies a Monte Carlo simulation-based approach to evaluate risks in a metro rail construction project in Surat, India, focusing on a two-span section involving excavation, foundation work, structural assembly, and track installation. Ten critical risks, including delays in material delivery, unforeseen geological conditions, and labour shortages, were identified through expert consultations. Single-point estimates using Primavera P6 indicated a project duration of 91 days and a cost of ₹12,01,48,790, but these did not account for uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulations revealed a mean project duration of 341 days and a cost of ₹19,03,66,576, emphasizing the significant impact of risks. The integration of project mitigation strategies like long-term material contracts and enhanced safety measures decreased the mean project duration by 36.6%, to 216 days, and the cost to ₹11,99,98,654. Further, the 70th percentile estimates in the mitigated case showed a duration of 158 days and a cost of ₹12,30,66,310, reflecting drops of 34% in duration and 14% in cost relative to the unmitigated case. A mitigation budget of ₹20,00,000, representing just 2.84% of the total savings, emphasizes the cost-effectiveness of these strategies. Overall, these findings highlight the value of Monte Carlo simulations and focused mitigation strategies to enhance project planning, minimize time and cost overruns, minimize and optimize resource allocation for handling complex infrastructure projects.