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To address the uncertainty of risk propagation in product and SC change systems under COVID-19, this chapter proposes an assessment-to-control decision support scheme. The bullwhip effect (BE), integrating operational and behavioral causes, is quantified as cascading amplified inventory fluctuations, while the ripple effect (RE) from large-scale supplier disruptions is measured by increased entropy rates (ERs). A closed-loop control system is constructed, and criteria for the existence of controller gains are derived to stabilize the system and mitigate BE under RE. A mask SC case study verifies the scheme’s effectiveness: the controller significantly suppresses BE even with RE, and control theory confirms that RE drives BE amplification. This chapter provides reliable support for SC risk decision-making.

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Decision Modeling with Risk Cascading Propagation Effects

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Chen Peng,
  • Hongfeng Wang,
  • Yi Yang,
  • Yong Zhang

摘要

To address the uncertainty of risk propagation in product and SC change systems under COVID-19, this chapter proposes an assessment-to-control decision support scheme. The bullwhip effect (BE), integrating operational and behavioral causes, is quantified as cascading amplified inventory fluctuations, while the ripple effect (RE) from large-scale supplier disruptions is measured by increased entropy rates (ERs). A closed-loop control system is constructed, and criteria for the existence of controller gains are derived to stabilize the system and mitigate BE under RE. A mask SC case study verifies the scheme’s effectiveness: the controller significantly suppresses BE even with RE, and control theory confirms that RE drives BE amplification. This chapter provides reliable support for SC risk decision-making.