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Hydropower is widely recognized as a representative clean energy source, and its large-scale development serves as a crucial initiative for promoting low-carbon transformation in the energy sector and implementing carbon neutrality strategies for China. Quantitative analysis of carbon reduction throughout the life cycle of hydropower projects is essential for clarifying their low-carbon attributes and advancing high-quality development in hydropower engineering. This study takes a large-scale hydropower project in western China as a case study, employing a 100-year life-cycle assessment framework with contemporaneous coal-fired power generation as the reference benchmark. We comparatively investigate the electricity generation and corresponding carbon reduction potentials under both static and dynamic technological conditions. The results demonstrate that under static technological assumptions, the project achieves lifetime electricity generation of 820 billion kWh, corresponding to 2.16 billion tons of CO₂ emission reductions. When considering dynamic technological factors including turbine efficiency degradation, advancements in supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) coal-fired technologies, and the progressive implementation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies, the lifetime electricity generation decreases to 720 billion kWh with 1.43 billion tons of CO₂ reduction. In comparison, the dynamic scenario shows 12% reduction in total electricity generation and 34% decrease in carbon reduction potential relative to static conditions. This discrepancy primarily stems from two factors: gradual efficiency decline in hydropower turbines over operational lifespan, and significant reductions in carbon emission factors of coal-fired power due to technological innovations and CCUS adoption. These findings provide valuable insights for formulating carbon neutrality strategies in the energy sector. The methodology and comparative framework established in this study offer a reference paradigm for comprehensive life-cycle assessment of clean energy projects.

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Life-Cycle Carbon Reduction Benefit Analysis of Hydropower Projects—A Case Study of a Hydropower Project in Southwestern China

  • 会议论文

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Gang Chen,
  • Fangping Ma,
  • Fang Peng,
  • Dongliang Guan,
  • Xingguo Feng,
  • Haoran Wang,
  • Hong Zhang,
  • Wenyan He

摘要

Hydropower is widely recognized as a representative clean energy source, and its large-scale development serves as a crucial initiative for promoting low-carbon transformation in the energy sector and implementing carbon neutrality strategies for China. Quantitative analysis of carbon reduction throughout the life cycle of hydropower projects is essential for clarifying their low-carbon attributes and advancing high-quality development in hydropower engineering. This study takes a large-scale hydropower project in western China as a case study, employing a 100-year life-cycle assessment framework with contemporaneous coal-fired power generation as the reference benchmark. We comparatively investigate the electricity generation and corresponding carbon reduction potentials under both static and dynamic technological conditions. The results demonstrate that under static technological assumptions, the project achieves lifetime electricity generation of 820 billion kWh, corresponding to 2.16 billion tons of CO₂ emission reductions. When considering dynamic technological factors including turbine efficiency degradation, advancements in supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) coal-fired technologies, and the progressive implementation of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies, the lifetime electricity generation decreases to 720 billion kWh with 1.43 billion tons of CO₂ reduction. In comparison, the dynamic scenario shows 12% reduction in total electricity generation and 34% decrease in carbon reduction potential relative to static conditions. This discrepancy primarily stems from two factors: gradual efficiency decline in hydropower turbines over operational lifespan, and significant reductions in carbon emission factors of coal-fired power due to technological innovations and CCUS adoption. These findings provide valuable insights for formulating carbon neutrality strategies in the energy sector. The methodology and comparative framework established in this study offer a reference paradigm for comprehensive life-cycle assessment of clean energy projects.