Forecasting with Fishers: Climate Justice, Local Science, and Early Warning for All
摘要
As tropical storms intensify across the Arabian Sea in a warming globe, traditional fishing communities along India’s southwestern coast face escalating risks to their habitats and livelihoods. Often the changed weather regime involving high wind and waves, uncertain seasons, and severe storm impacts puts their lives at risk too. Weather services available to traditional fishers do not necessarily reflect their local needs and diverse fishing activities at different distances from the shore. In this context, this chapter explores how co-produced, small-grid marine forecasts—developed in collaboration with artisanal fishers, scientists, and social actors—can reshape early warning systems to be more inclusive, precise, and just. Rooted in field research and participatory practices in the past 8 years, this study situates localised forecasting as both a climate adaptation tool and a justice intervention, finding a place for the fishers in the mainstream risk regime. By integrating climate science, local ecological knowledge, and lived realities of coastal livelihoods, the chapter argues for a more comprehensive and inclusive forecasting and early warning system—one that treats information as a right and risk communication as a shared responsibility. Framed around the principle of early warning for all, this work advocates for forecasting systems that prioritize the most exposed while advancing both social and environmental equity.