Life Prediction Method of Key Components of Passenger Ropeway Based on Statistical Model
摘要
As an important transportation tool, passenger ropeways are widely used in various amusement park areas due to their short transportation distance, low energy consumption, and strong adaptability. In this chapter, the passenger ropeway is taken as the research object, and its fault diagnosis and residual life prediction of key components are carried out. Firstly, the life prediction technology scheme based on component replacement records is adopted. Four different life probability distribution models based on normal distribution, log normal distribution, Weibull distribution, and gamma distribution are established to predict the life and reliability of components. Secondly, by calculating the probability distribution of component life obtained from each distribution and the KL divergence value of the original data, the KS test is performed on the four models mentioned above, and the model that conforms the test is selected. Finally, according to the replacement record of a component by a ropeway operation and maintenance department, the life distribution of the component is estimated and analyzed. The research results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the life of components and provide a scientific basis for the maintenance of transportation system, thus further improving the safety and reliability of passenger ropeway.