Accurate forecasts of water-quality indicators are essential for agriculture, aquaculture, and industry. We compare classical statistical models (ARIMA, ETS), machine-learning baselines (Random Forest, XGBoost), and Transformer-based models on two multivariate datasets from China and England. We propose Parallel ETSFormer, which runs multiple encoder branches in parallel and aggregates their level/growth/seasonal outputs to mitigate depth-wise error accumulation in limited-data settings. Across experiments, the Parallel ETSFormer especially reduces tail errors (P95AE, HAE) while remaining competitive on average metrics (MAE, RMSE). We also report robustness-focused metrics to support operational decision-making.

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Water Quality Time-Series Forecasting

  • Nguyen Quang-Hung,
  • Kien Trong Le,
  • Minh Pham Hoang,
  • Tin Nguyen Chanh,
  • Nam Thoai

摘要

Accurate forecasts of water-quality indicators are essential for agriculture, aquaculture, and industry. We compare classical statistical models (ARIMA, ETS), machine-learning baselines (Random Forest, XGBoost), and Transformer-based models on two multivariate datasets from China and England. We propose Parallel ETSFormer, which runs multiple encoder branches in parallel and aggregates their level/growth/seasonal outputs to mitigate depth-wise error accumulation in limited-data settings. Across experiments, the Parallel ETSFormer especially reduces tail errors (P95AE, HAE) while remaining competitive on average metrics (MAE, RMSE). We also report robustness-focused metrics to support operational decision-making.