In life, as in games, there is sometimes a need to be unpredictable. In such situations, game theory advocates the use of a ‘randomized’ or ‘mixed’ strategy, a strategy that is contingent on the outcome of a probabilistic event, like the spin of a roulette wheel or the toss of a coin. It also aims to identify the precise probability that should be associated with the various pure strategies. This chapter presents the conceptual underpinnings of mixed strategies. The section on zero-sum games provides a valuable insight into minimax strategies as a formalization of the commonly observed risk averse behaviour of people as well as of the use of mixed strategies to achieve unpredictability. Insights are applied to case studies from the Australian Open tennis championship of 2017. It is shown below that even champions can fail to completely achieve the Holy Grail of unpredictability.

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Randomization

  • Rohit Prasad

摘要

In life, as in games, there is sometimes a need to be unpredictable. In such situations, game theory advocates the use of a ‘randomized’ or ‘mixed’ strategy, a strategy that is contingent on the outcome of a probabilistic event, like the spin of a roulette wheel or the toss of a coin. It also aims to identify the precise probability that should be associated with the various pure strategies. This chapter presents the conceptual underpinnings of mixed strategies. The section on zero-sum games provides a valuable insight into minimax strategies as a formalization of the commonly observed risk averse behaviour of people as well as of the use of mixed strategies to achieve unpredictability. Insights are applied to case studies from the Australian Open tennis championship of 2017. It is shown below that even champions can fail to completely achieve the Holy Grail of unpredictability.