This study systematically examines the influence of key basic education indicators on enrollment outcomes in East Java Province in the context of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 4 (Quality Education). Using a quantitative approach supported by descriptive statistics and linear regression analysis, the study evaluates the effects of dropout rates, repetition rates, student–teacher ratios, and student–school ratios on the Net Enrollment Rate (NER). The findings show that dropout rate has a significant negative impact on NER, underscoring the central role of student retention in sustaining equitable access to primary education. In contrast, repetition rate demonstrates a positive association with NER, indicating that grade repetition maintains student participation while simultaneously reflecting underlying learning quality challenges. Resource-based indicators such as student–teacher and student–school ratios show no significant short-term effects on enrollment. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence on the causal relationships between education indicators and enrollment, addressing gaps in previous SDG-focused research that has been predominantly descriptive. Future studies should incorporate longitudinal or mixed-method designs and micro-level data to explore contextual determinants of educational equity and to develop targeted intervention models that strengthen progress toward SDG 4 across diverse Indonesian regions.