This chapter evaluates the WTOs survival prospects amid deep institutional strain. It argues that the WTO’s core functions remain crucial but are undermined by consensus paralysis, the Appellate Body impasse, rising use of national-security rationales, and protectionist measures. The chapter traces its historical origins in GATT’s diplomatic, non-legalist ethos and explains why that legacy complicates enforcement today. It assesses plurilateral responses (open and closed agreements), the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration (MPIA) as a voluntary appellate stopgap, and the limits of regional and bilateral alternatives. While the WTO faces real risks of marginalisation amid geo-strategic rivalry and resource nationalism, the chapter stresses its resilience and concludes that the institution’s future depends on pragmatic reform: preserving predictability and fairness while accommodating plural governance, clearer dispute mechanisms, and renewed political commitment from major powers.

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The Future of the WTO

  • Mary Hiscock

摘要

This chapter evaluates the WTOs survival prospects amid deep institutional strain. It argues that the WTO’s core functions remain crucial but are undermined by consensus paralysis, the Appellate Body impasse, rising use of national-security rationales, and protectionist measures. The chapter traces its historical origins in GATT’s diplomatic, non-legalist ethos and explains why that legacy complicates enforcement today. It assesses plurilateral responses (open and closed agreements), the Multi-Party Interim Appeal Arbitration (MPIA) as a voluntary appellate stopgap, and the limits of regional and bilateral alternatives. While the WTO faces real risks of marginalisation amid geo-strategic rivalry and resource nationalism, the chapter stresses its resilience and concludes that the institution’s future depends on pragmatic reform: preserving predictability and fairness while accommodating plural governance, clearer dispute mechanisms, and renewed political commitment from major powers.