The Clash of Economic Models and the Remaking of World Economics: China and India
摘要
Globalisation stands at a critical juncture, its future increasingly shaped by the divergent economic trajectories of China and India. This chapter provides a comparative analysis of these two economic giants, examining how their distinct development models impact both their domestic stability and the international trading system. First, we analyse China’s pivotal role, arguing that its state-driven, export-oriented growth has created profound structural imbalances. While this model lifted millions from poverty, it also produced the “China shock” in Western economies and generated vast industrial overcapacity, fuelled by policies that suppress household consumption. We contend that these internal issues are the root cause of escalating global trade tensions. The chapter posits that for its own sustainable growth and the health of the global economy, China must enact deep domestic reforms. These include strengthening the social safety net, reforming the Hukou (household registration) and pension systems, and rebalancing the economy towards domestic demand. Second, we present India as a crucial counterpoint. Despite its success in the global services industry, India has failed to develop a comparable manufacturing export base. The analysis identifies key structural impediments hindering its industrial potential: persistent infrastructure deficits, restrictive labour laws, bureaucratic hurdles, and gaps in human capital development. A roadmap for reform is proposed to unlock India’s manufacturing capabilities. Ultimately, this chapter argues that the future of a sustainable global economic order depends less on international trade negotiations and more on the willingness of these Asian powers to undertake the fundamental domestic reforms necessary to create more balanced and equitable growth.