This paper addresses the challenge of forecasting cryptocurrency returns, complicated by the market’s speculative nature. Previous research has focused on historical data, macroeconomic indicators, and public interest, often overlooking inter-cryptocurrency relationships. We leverage temporal data from core cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum to automatically select features for predicting the future returns of other cryptocurrencies. We also developed a fundamental network representing cryptocurrencies across multiple dimensions–industry, technology, and investor interactions. Using a transformer-based architecture with dynamic gating, we demonstrate that our framework outperforms previous methods, with long-short portfolios yielding higher returns than simple buy-and-hold strategies.

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Cryptocurrency Interdependency and Market Dynamics: A Network-Based Approach to Return Forecasting

  • Sizheng Fan,
  • Yunshu Liu,
  • Bingjie Zhang,
  • Zili Zhang

摘要

This paper addresses the challenge of forecasting cryptocurrency returns, complicated by the market’s speculative nature. Previous research has focused on historical data, macroeconomic indicators, and public interest, often overlooking inter-cryptocurrency relationships. We leverage temporal data from core cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum to automatically select features for predicting the future returns of other cryptocurrencies. We also developed a fundamental network representing cryptocurrencies across multiple dimensions–industry, technology, and investor interactions. Using a transformer-based architecture with dynamic gating, we demonstrate that our framework outperforms previous methods, with long-short portfolios yielding higher returns than simple buy-and-hold strategies.