Driverless manned aircraft, as a new type of vehicle, exhibits extensive application potential in urban commuting, regional passenger transport, tourism sightseeing and emergency rescue. However, crash accidents that may occur during its operation will cause casualties, economic losses, environmental burdens and secondary disasters that shake social confidence. This paper defines the content and influence scope of different secondary disasters, and systematically evaluates the impact of secondary disasters caused by driverless manned aircraft crashes in different application scenarios through analytic hierarchy process. It is found that the influence weight of economic loss and social confidence is relatively high under the urban commuting scenario; in the regional passenger transport scenario, the economic loss and social confidence still occupy the dominant position, but the weight of social confidence is slightly low; under the tourism sightseeing scenario, the impact weight of environmental burden is significantly increased; in emergency rescue scenario, the influence weight of social confidence is the highest. Research results indicate that, under the criterion where casualties are used as a measure of crash hazard severity, economic losses and social confidence exhibit significant impact in secondary disasters resulting from crashes involving driverless manned aircraft. Through comprehensive consideration of technical, economic and social factors, this paper predicts the future development direction of driverless manned aircraft and provides reference for safe application of aircraft.

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Analysis of Secondary Disaster Impacts Caused by the Crash of Driverless Manned Aircraft

  • Dongyue Cui,
  • Yonggang Yang,
  • Yifan Yang

摘要

Driverless manned aircraft, as a new type of vehicle, exhibits extensive application potential in urban commuting, regional passenger transport, tourism sightseeing and emergency rescue. However, crash accidents that may occur during its operation will cause casualties, economic losses, environmental burdens and secondary disasters that shake social confidence. This paper defines the content and influence scope of different secondary disasters, and systematically evaluates the impact of secondary disasters caused by driverless manned aircraft crashes in different application scenarios through analytic hierarchy process. It is found that the influence weight of economic loss and social confidence is relatively high under the urban commuting scenario; in the regional passenger transport scenario, the economic loss and social confidence still occupy the dominant position, but the weight of social confidence is slightly low; under the tourism sightseeing scenario, the impact weight of environmental burden is significantly increased; in emergency rescue scenario, the influence weight of social confidence is the highest. Research results indicate that, under the criterion where casualties are used as a measure of crash hazard severity, economic losses and social confidence exhibit significant impact in secondary disasters resulting from crashes involving driverless manned aircraft. Through comprehensive consideration of technical, economic and social factors, this paper predicts the future development direction of driverless manned aircraft and provides reference for safe application of aircraft.