The Olympic Games, as the world’s premier sporting event, drive global nations to prioritize competitive excellence, with medal tables offering critical insights for shaping national strategies and informed preparation for future Games. Based on the medal data from the Summer Olympics after 1984, this study addresses the challenge of comprehensively predicting Olympic medal outcomes across national, event-specific, and breakthrough contexts. We propose a unified analytical framework integrating ARIMA for macro-level national projections, the Herfin-dahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for event monopolization assess, Multiple Linear Regression and Monte Carlo Simulation for event competitiveness and first-medal probability, and Markov chains to quantify coaching impacts. Results project the United States to lead with 138 medals, followed by China with 96 at the 2028 Olympic Games. Results also identify 24.6% probability for two new medal-winning nations, and reveal a 63% performance boost from elite coaches like Lang Ping. The framework provides actionable insights for optimizing national sports strategies through resource allocation and talent development prioritization, particularly in highly monopolized women’s events.