When we are not given a probability distribution as an object as in the von-Neumann/Morgenstern expected utility theory, the decision maker has to form one subjectively in a certain way. While it will be something that is obtained by processing some objective information, it is ultimately a subjective one. Then, how can an outside observer identify such subjective belief from the decision maker’s choices?

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Decision Under Uncertainty and Subjective Belief

  • Takashi Hayashi

摘要

When we are not given a probability distribution as an object as in the von-Neumann/Morgenstern expected utility theory, the decision maker has to form one subjectively in a certain way. While it will be something that is obtained by processing some objective information, it is ultimately a subjective one. Then, how can an outside observer identify such subjective belief from the decision maker’s choices?