Forecasting of Indian Crime Data Using ARIMA and Polynomial Regression
摘要
This study investigates crime trends in India from 2001 to 2022, focusing on major offenses such as murder, rape, kidnapping and abduction, dowry death, and grievous hurt, as classified under the Indian Penal Code (IPC). These crimes, which pose significant societal challenges, are analyzed in terms of their frequency and distribution across different states over time. The analysis revealed substantial variability in crime rates, reflecting fluctuations influenced by socio-economic factors. Through data normalization, trends across these diverse categories were effectively compared, highlighting distinct crime patterns and changes over time. Despite issues with missing data, particularly in the grievous hurt category, median imputation ensured data integrity for comprehensive analysis. The findings underscore significant regional differences and evolving crime trends, providing valuable insights for policymakers and law enforcement. This study offers a detailed examination of crime dynamics in India, contributing to a better understanding of how these critical issues develop over time and across regions.