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Rauvolfia serpentina (L.) Benth. ex Kurz is a globally significant species important for people’s livelihoods. The unsustainable and unscientific over-harvesting of this plant has threatened its continuous survival. The IUCN has listed it as endangered. The present study was done in the Dehradun district of Uttarakhand Himalaya to assess the current and potential future distribution of R. serpentina based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The model showed good accuracy with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.870, with the major contributions of the bioclimatic variables to the model being the precipitation of the mean diurnal range (Bio 2; 76.8%) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio 19; 11.9%). The current distribution showed that 184.2 km2 (5.96%), 683.21 km2 (22.12%), and 525.3 km2 (17.01%) were under high potential, good potential, and moderate potential habitats of R serpentina in the study area, respectively. However, the total area of the high-potential and good-potential habitat decreased under the RCPs (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) in the 2050s and 2070s. The present study will help the decision makers make appropriate plans for conserving R. serpentina while considering future climate scenarios.

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Current and Future Possible Potentiality of Rauvolfia serpentina an IUCN Listed Endangered Species Using Maxent Modelling

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2025年

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  • Neelam Rawat,
  • Saurabh Purohit,
  • Vikas Painuly,
  • Govind Singh Negi,
  • Mahendra Pratap Singh Bisht

摘要

Rauvolfia serpentina (L.) Benth. ex Kurz is a globally significant species important for people’s livelihoods. The unsustainable and unscientific over-harvesting of this plant has threatened its continuous survival. The IUCN has listed it as endangered. The present study was done in the Dehradun district of Uttarakhand Himalaya to assess the current and potential future distribution of R. serpentina based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the 2050s and 2070s using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The model showed good accuracy with an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.870, with the major contributions of the bioclimatic variables to the model being the precipitation of the mean diurnal range (Bio 2; 76.8%) and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio 19; 11.9%). The current distribution showed that 184.2 km2 (5.96%), 683.21 km2 (22.12%), and 525.3 km2 (17.01%) were under high potential, good potential, and moderate potential habitats of R serpentina in the study area, respectively. However, the total area of the high-potential and good-potential habitat decreased under the RCPs (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) in the 2050s and 2070s. The present study will help the decision makers make appropriate plans for conserving R. serpentina while considering future climate scenarios.