As the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources becomes increasingly prominent, the scientific assessment of water resources carrying capacity plays a crucial role in the sustainable development of a region. Based on the characteristics of rural water resources in Sichuan Province, a system dynamics model for water resources carrying capacity was constructed. By designing and simulating four different development scenarios, the trends of each scenario were predicted. In the comprehensive development scenario, the carrying capacity of rural water resources was maximized, fully considering both economic development and ecological protection in rural areas, making it the optimal path for sustainable development in rural Sichuan. The carrying capacity of rural water resources in Sichuan Province can be improved from two aspects: 1. Strengthening agricultural water management and adjusting the structure of agricultural crops; 2. Comprehensively coordinating water resources management and enhancing wastewater treatment technologies. The findings of this research can provide a scientific basis for the planning and management of rural water resources in Sichuan Province.