The term “heat wave” refers to long periods of unusually hot weather. Evidence shows that heat waves happen more frequently than any other catastrophic event. It has profound effects on human productivity, industrial development, agriculture yield, environment quality, natural resources, and importantly on health and biodiversity. And heatwaves can potentially affect the national economy. Central India is more prone to heat waves and has adverse effects. With rising global warming, it is expected that heat waves will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged. Heat waves may be harmful, especially for more susceptible individuals, such as the elderly, children, and people who have specific medical issues. As a result, India experiences more heat waves throughout the summer (April to June), more often, and for longer periods overall. Future heatwaves are expected to occur more frequently, endure longer, and be stronger in almost all inhabited places. The proposed statistical framework applies the extreme value theory (EVT) and allows for the estimation of the probability of uncommon occurrences that have not yet been seen and have not been recorded in the past. The present chapter discusses the possibility of determining the locations and chances of future heat waves of varying sizes. The result shows that the return levels of extreme temperature (or heat wave) are 47.96 °C and 44.59 °C for Nagpur and Hyderabad for a return period of 10 years. The frequency and severity of severe temperatures are shown by the return values and agreement between the observed data and the predicted distributions. The results help in predictive maintenance to mitigate and adapt to extremely hot conditions and also provide support in the near real-time prediction of heat events, thus helping in resource optimization and providing better decision-making to achieve sustainable developmental goals.

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Trend Analysis of Long-Term Temperature Data for Prediction of Heat Waves Through Statistical Analysis Using Extreme Value Theory for Climate Disaster Management

  • Sagar Tomar,
  • Rakesh Kadaverugu

摘要

The term “heat wave” refers to long periods of unusually hot weather. Evidence shows that heat waves happen more frequently than any other catastrophic event. It has profound effects on human productivity, industrial development, agriculture yield, environment quality, natural resources, and importantly on health and biodiversity. And heatwaves can potentially affect the national economy. Central India is more prone to heat waves and has adverse effects. With rising global warming, it is expected that heat waves will become more intense, frequent, and prolonged. Heat waves may be harmful, especially for more susceptible individuals, such as the elderly, children, and people who have specific medical issues. As a result, India experiences more heat waves throughout the summer (April to June), more often, and for longer periods overall. Future heatwaves are expected to occur more frequently, endure longer, and be stronger in almost all inhabited places. The proposed statistical framework applies the extreme value theory (EVT) and allows for the estimation of the probability of uncommon occurrences that have not yet been seen and have not been recorded in the past. The present chapter discusses the possibility of determining the locations and chances of future heat waves of varying sizes. The result shows that the return levels of extreme temperature (or heat wave) are 47.96 °C and 44.59 °C for Nagpur and Hyderabad for a return period of 10 years. The frequency and severity of severe temperatures are shown by the return values and agreement between the observed data and the predicted distributions. The results help in predictive maintenance to mitigate and adapt to extremely hot conditions and also provide support in the near real-time prediction of heat events, thus helping in resource optimization and providing better decision-making to achieve sustainable developmental goals.