A persistent gap between expansive aims and finite means drives Russia’s contemporary geopolitics. We argue that geography, long borders, and a large—but aging—state create security anxieties that leaders have historically managed through coercive power. The chapter traces the path from Cold War stability to the post-Soviet search for status, the Primakov turn to multipolarity, and Putin’s move from early cooperation to open confrontation. Ukraine is pivotal: Contests over its alignment transformed a managed rivalry into war and triggered sanctions, energy rerouting, and information conflict. We differentiate Russia’s power resources—ideational, economic, and military—and show how their mix shifted after 2014 toward hard power and nuclear signaling. We assess tools across three arenas: the post-Soviet region, Europe, and the Global South, including the BRICS paradox that magnifies China while constraining Moscow. The conclusion forecasts sustained coercive capacity but declining autonomy, with outcomes contingent on leadership choices rather than geographic inevitability.

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Russia

  • Irina Busygina,
  • Mikhail Filippov

摘要

A persistent gap between expansive aims and finite means drives Russia’s contemporary geopolitics. We argue that geography, long borders, and a large—but aging—state create security anxieties that leaders have historically managed through coercive power. The chapter traces the path from Cold War stability to the post-Soviet search for status, the Primakov turn to multipolarity, and Putin’s move from early cooperation to open confrontation. Ukraine is pivotal: Contests over its alignment transformed a managed rivalry into war and triggered sanctions, energy rerouting, and information conflict. We differentiate Russia’s power resources—ideational, economic, and military—and show how their mix shifted after 2014 toward hard power and nuclear signaling. We assess tools across three arenas: the post-Soviet region, Europe, and the Global South, including the BRICS paradox that magnifies China while constraining Moscow. The conclusion forecasts sustained coercive capacity but declining autonomy, with outcomes contingent on leadership choices rather than geographic inevitability.